So long, Sebastien; holiday week warm-up begins on Tuesday

(Image credit: NHC)

CLEAR SAILING: Saturday marks the official end of the 2019 hurricane season, and it looks like it will go out on a quiet note. The National Hurricane Center will issue its final Tropical Weather Outlook on Saturday; outlooks are issued off-season only as necessary.

Sebastien was still packing 60 mph winds near the Azores on Sunday night, but the NHC said it had lost its tropical characteristics. The agency issued its final advisory late Sunday night.

The storm brought gusty winds and rain to the Azores, but didn’t cause any major damage, according to Azorestoday.com.

The remnants of the storm were expected to sweep into Ireland and the United Kingdom with rain and gale-force winds on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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SWEATER WEATHER: It was a chilly Monday morning in Florida with mid- to upper-30s in the panhandle and North Florida; 40s in the Orlando area; low 50s in Central Florida and parts of interior South Florida; and upper 50s to near 60 in coastal South Florida. The Keys were mostly in the upper 60s.

Interestingly, there were no bitter cold air anywhere in the U.S., and the temperature in the panhandle inland from the coast was almost the same as temps in the Mid-Atlantic and in New England, where 30s prevailed.

It’s an indication that this cool-snap will be relatively brief, with temperatures climbing back to near 80 degrees around South and Central Florida by Tuesday and Wednesday. And all of Thanksgiving weekend looks pretty nice, according to the National Weather Service, with highs around 80 and lows in the 60s.

BEFORE THE FRONT ROLLED THROUGH: Marathon once again had the state’s high on Sunday with 85, and Miami International wasn’t far behind with 84. (The record high for the date in Miami was 88, set in 2014.)

RAINFALL REPORT: Sunday’s front dropped up to a third of an inch of rain in parts of South Florida, except that a CoCoRaHS observer in Glades County near Palmdale reported 0.60 of an inch.

Observers in Miami-Dade County reported around a tenth of an inch, but Miami International Airport officially checked in with 0.16 of an inch.

 

Cold front knocks back temps after South Florida highs top out in upper 80s

Above: forecast lows for South Florida for upcoming week will start out below average before rebounding; below: forecast highs and lows for Florida’s West Coast. (Image credits: NWS-Miami/ NWS-TampaBay)

Warm temperatures returned to the entire state Saturday, with highs in the 80s from tip to top. But the warm-up was short-lived as another cold front began rolling down the peninsula early Sunday morning.

A warming trend begins again on Tuesday, with a toasty Thanksgiving Day in the forecast, followed by what looks to be yet another cold front next weekend as December begins.

Thus, the usual winter pattern in Florida: Cold front, warm-up, rinse and repeat.

The fronts usually end up stalling in the Florida Straits and washing out, but the stronger ones make it through Cuba before running out of gas.

On Saturday, even the panhandle and North Florida made it into the 80s — Tallahassee and Jacksonville posted highs of 80 degrees, while Gainesville fell just short at 79.

Of all the principle reporting stations around Florida, Marathon in the Keys had the highest maximum with 85, but there were several warmer unofficial temperatures over mainland South Florida.

To wit: An observer just west of Zoo Miami reported a high of 88; and in Broward County, Plantation checked in with 87 and Weston was 86. An observer in western Boca Raton, Palm Beach County, reported a high of 86, as did Immokalee in inland Collier.

The state will feel the effects of the latest cold front most on Monday and Monday night into Tuesday morning, according to the National Weather Service, with Tuesday morning forecast lows of 42 in Gainesville; 44 in Tallahassee; 46 in Jacksonville; 51 in Tampa and Orlando; 66 in Miami; and 70 in Key West.

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TROPICS WATCH: Tropical Storm Sebastien, which has stubbornly maintained its strength and classification this weekend, was forecast to begin battering the western Azores late on Sunday.

Early Sunday morning, Sebastien was racing toward the islands at 33 mph with top winds of 65 mph. It could become post-tropical before nearing the islands, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said: “Regardless of its status, Sebastien or its remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning later today.”

No other areas of interest were identified in the Atlantic by the NHC. The hurricane season officially ends next Saturday.

T- Day minus 5: A parade of pleasant weather in holiday forecasts

Even the weather in New York should be pretty nice for the Thanksgiving Day festivities. (Image credit: Midtownguy2012 via Wikimedia Commons.)

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If you’re looking forward to roasted turkey with side orders of sunshine and balmy temperatures, where’s the best place to be on T-Day?

The National Weather Service in Miami said Saturday: “So what about the Thanksgiving Day forecast? Well you haven`t seen stuffing yet. Thanksgiving Day will be quite pleasant with no rain anticipated, mostly clear skies, high temperatures in the low 80s, and low temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70.”

Ditto for both Tampa and Orlando, where the forecasts are for sunshine and a high of 80. Jacksonville: sunny with a high of 73; Tallahassee, mostly sunny with a high of 74; and Key West, sunny with a high of 81.

In fact, after a cool and sometimes snowy start to November around the country, Thanksgiving and the start of the holiday season look pretty nice from coast to coast, although some wet weather may be setting up in the West. Let’s look at the forecasts.

Chicago: Partly sunny with a slight chance of rain, high of 41; New York, mostly sunny with a high of 47; Boston, mostly sunny with a high of 41; and Portland, Maine: Partly sunny with a high of 37.

Atlanta, chance of showers, high near 60; Baltimore, mostly sunny with a high of 50; St. Louis, chance of showers, high of 48; Houston, cloudy with a chance of rain, high of 72; and Denver, mostly cloudy with a high of 51.

Phoenix, rain likely with a breezy high of 68; Los Angeles, clouds and rain with a high of 57; San Francisco, clouds and showers with a high of 54; and Seattle, sunny with a high of 40.

Taking another look at the ultra-long-range forecast, released by NOAA Friday, the southeastern U.S., including all of Florida, may see above normal temperatures up through December 20, with below normal temps from the Rocky Mountain States east through the Upper Midwest and into New England.

Above normal precip is in the forecast from Florida up the East Coast into southern New England, while the Upper Midwest may be drier than average.

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TROPICS WATCH: After flaring up late Friday, Tropical Storm Sebastien is forecast once again to start losing its punch as it moves east-northeast over the open Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said. It had winds of 60 mph Saturday morning, but was expected to become extra-tropical by Monday night.

The forecast track takes the storm’s remnants close to the Azores.

Sebastien forecast to become season’s seventh hurricane; calling all photographers

(Image credit: NHC)

TROPICS WATCH: Here’s an interesting twist: Tropical Storm Sebastien is forecast to become the season’s seventh hurricane on Friday, giving 2019 an impressive score of 18 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors.

Sebastien had already powered up to a 60 mph storm on Thursday as it turned toward the north-northeast, according to the National Hurricane Center. Conditions for additional strengthening were in place along its projected track for the next day before cooler water and drier air begin to weaken the storm.

Sebastien is expected to become extra-tropical by early Saturday morning.

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(Image credit: NWS-Miami)

PICTURE THIS: The Key West National Weather Service is known for its artsy constituent photos, which the agency posts on its website and Facebook pages. Of course, the material is there every day in the islands, with stunning sunsets and sailboats framed by swaying coconut palms.

South Florida has its own photo opportunities with its more urban landscape, natural beauty of the Everglades and busy canal system.

And now the NWS in Miami is soliciting more photos from the area in a call that went out on its Facebook page Thursday morning. Lots of opportunities — and obviously lots of great photographers in South Florida.

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Tuesday-Wednesday morning minimum temperatures in East-Central Florida. (Image credit: NWS-Melbourne)

WARMING TREND: Highs will begin to creep back up to near 80 before the next cold front rolls down the peninsula late in the weekend, according to forecasters. Warmer weather looks to be on tap for the long Thanksgiving Weekend as well.

From there on out, the forecast is for partly cloudy skies with a 100 percent chance of Christmas music.

How unusual was the cold snap we’ve had over the past week? Very unusual, with Sunday snapping temperature records that had been on the books for more than a century.

Temperatures were as much as 15 degrees below normal, and many areas around the state have had at least five straight days of below normal temps.

Sebastien picks up steam in Atlantic; early Thanksgiving Day forecasts

(Image credit: NHC)

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN was stronger Wednesday morning with top winds of 50 mph, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predicted it would top out as a 65 mph storm on Thursday before it’s absorbed by a cold front in the Central Atlantic and becomes extra-tropical.

With 18 named storms, 2019 is only the ninth season on record with 18 or more named storms, according to Colorado State University’s Philip Klotzbach. The others were 1887, 1933, 1969, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Sebestien was also the latest storm to form since Hurricane Otto in 2016, he said.

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SETTLING INTO THE DRY SEASON: No measurable rain fell in any of the official observation sites around the state on Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service. There were a few sprinkles here and there, though — in western Martin County and coastal Lee County, observers for CoCoRaHS reported.

Humidity remains low as a series of cold fronts sweep down the peninsula.

It was in the mid- and upper-50s in South Florida early Wednesday morning, the mid- and upper-60s in the Keys and 70 in Key West.

But 40s were common in the Lake Okeechobee area and points north and west, and it was 42 degrees in western St. Lucie County. The Tampa area was mostly in the upper 40s to around 50; and there were a few spots in the upper 30s sprinkled around North-Central Florida.

Jasper, Florida, northwest of Live Oak, was 37.

But a warming trend was due to begin, especially for the East Coast, as winds swing around to the east. Water temperatures are still in the upper 70s to near 80 along much of the East Coast.

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THANKSGIVING DAY FORECASTS (Weather Underground): Orlando, partly cloudy with a high of 79, low of 60; Tampa, partly cloudy with a high of 78, low of 60; Jacksonville, partly cloudy with a high of 70, low of 57; Tallahassee, partly cloudy with a high of 69, low of 54; Miami, partly cloudy with a high of 81, low of 71; and Key West, partly cloudy with a high of 80, low of 75.