(Image credit: NHC)
TROPICS WATCH: Nestor, Olga, and Pablo. Those are the next three names on the 2019 hurricane season list, and it’s beginning to look like we could see all of them. The disturbance that’s rolling off the coast of Africa today has been designated Invest 94L by the National Hurricane Center, and all of the forecast models show something developing south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
But this is mid-October, and we won’t see any long-tracking storm cruising across the Atlantic and threatening the Antilles or the U.S. Coast. Instead, the forecast models pretty consistently take the storm to the north, with some curving it (or what remains of it as it weakens), back into northern Africa.
Here’s what the scenario looked like as of Sunday morning:
(Image credit: SFWMD)
A second disturbance in the western Caribbean looks like it will run head-on into Central America, or the Yucatan Peninsula, then (perhaps) emerge into the western Gulf of Mexico around mid-week.
The GFS has been depicting some development of this off and on, and Sunday’s run takes a weak system into Louisiana.
Another tropical wave in the Central Atlantic has not grabbed NHC attention, but the GFS and Canadian (CMC) have the wave entering the Caribbean in long-range forecasts.
Subtropical Storm Melissa was hanging on with 45 mph winds as it moves east-northeast, but it’s forecast to become post-tropical on Monday.
RAINFALL REPORT: Decent rains fell in the Keys and in extreme southern Florida on Saturday. Marathon reported 0.63 inches, the heftiest rainfall total since August 15. Key West checked in with 0.54 of an inch. And 0.85 of an inch fell in Curry Hammock State Park, northeast of Marathon.
Miami picked up 0.24 of an inch at Miami International Airport.
Most of the peninsula and panhandle were dry, but a trace of rain fell on the East Coast as far north as Martin County.
Another stalled front was forecast by the National Weather Service to hike rain chances around the peninsula from mid-week into next weekend.