Tropical Storm Chris had top winds of 60 mph and was forecast to become the season’s second hurricane on Tuesday, while the remnants of Beryl slide west over the northeastern Caribbean. (Image credit: NHC)
WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES STATEMENT ON BERYL: “At this time none of the guidance and overall conditions favor the potential development of tropical wave Beryl to be a concern for South Florida despite the 50 percent chance of development as it approaches the central Bahamas, ” Pablo Santos, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Miami said in a 7 p.m. statement to the media.
“The potential development region remains well to our east and upper level flow pattern favors it turning north well east of us. We will continue to monitor this closely and should this perspective change we will let you know.”
ORIGINAL POST: Ex-Beryl has a date with the Bahamas later in the week, the National Hurricane Center said Monday, but the question is — will there be any impact on Florida weather from the one-time hurricane?
On Monday morning, forecast models were mostly placing any redevelopment of Beryl in the Central Bahamas, and the National Weather Service says it will have no direct impact on the peninsula except to turn winds southerly. But that wind flow will be enough to pump tropical moisture into South Florida, upping rain chances to 40 percent.
Highest rain chances will be across the interior, forecasters said.
A few forecast models bring ex-Beryl a little closer to Florida’s East Coast, in particular the Canadian model (CMC), which is not one of the more respected models for tropical weather forecasting. In its 8 a.m. Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC had the orange redevelopment cone covering Andros Island to Grand Bahama north-northeast through the Central Bahamas and into the open Atlantic.
What will likely turn ex-Beryl away from the U.S.? NWS Melbourne explains: “Upper trough over [the Northeastern] US deepens, causing TC Chris offshore [North Carolina] to eject [northeast]. This trough and associated height weakness will also capture remnants of TC Beryl, recurving the system near/east of the easternmost Bahamas.”
One other tropical impact to Florida this week: Tropical Storm Chris increases the threat for rip currents for the northeast Florida beaches, according to the NWS Jacksonville. On Monday, the risk was “Moderate” from just north of Jacksonville south through Flagler County beaches.
Chris may also trigger a northeast swell, building through Tuesday as high as 5-6 feet off-shore of Volusia and Brevard counties, the NWS-Melbourne said.
Minus any changes in the forecast, Florida should be looking at a “typical summertime pattern” as we head into the weekend, forecasters said.
Puerto Rico, still struggling to recover from last year’s Hurricane Maria, was bracing for up to 4 inches of rain from the remnants of Beryl. A Flash Flood Watch was issued. (Image credit: NWS-San Juan)
FLORIDA RAINFALL WATCH: Heaviest precipitation Sunday was in the panhandle, where an observer in southern Gadsden County west of Talahassee reported 3.77 inches to the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network.
NATIONAL ATTENTION FOR LAKE O: The algae bloom on Lake Okeechobee — which now covers about 90 percent of the 730-square-mile lake — is filtering into canals on the coast and smells like “opening a bag of moldy bread,” the New York Times says in story published Monday.
The bloom, a result of rain, hot weather agricultural runoff, occurs every summer but this summer is the worst many have seen. NOAA scientists are warning people who come into contact with it to immediately wash it off to avoid irritation. It can be fatal for dogs that swim in it.
NOAA researchers are engaged in studies to see whether the yearly algae blooms — which affect other freshwater lakes around the nation as well — are becoming more frequent and severe, the newspaper reports.