Forecast track for Tropical Storm Lisa. (Credit: NHC)
UPDATE: Tropical Depression 13 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Lisa today by the National Hurricane Center, as expected. Forecasters predicted the storm would peak with 60 mph winds as it moves over the open Atlantic, but “quite hostile” wind shear should knock it down to a post-tropical remnant low by this weekend.
ORIGINAL POST: The tropics coughed up another depression in the eastern Atlantic Monday night — the 13th of the 2016 season — and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predicted it would become Tropical Storm Lisa on Tuesday.
But although TD 13 was moving west at 12 mph, forecasters said it would turn toward the west-northwest and weaken back to a depression by the weekend. It will likely peak as a 60 mph tropical storm on Wednesday, the NHC said.
Forecasters said Tropical Storm Karl, meanwhile, will become a Category 2 hurricane by the weekend with 100 mph winds. But they said it will likely slide east of Bermuda.
In fact, forecast models are nearly unanimous in calling for both systems to continue northwest and north over the open Atlantic, no threat to the U.S. coast.
The GFS shows no threats developing in the Atlantic through the end of the month. But recent model runs have shown a system spinning up in the western Caribbean during the first week of October.
Other forecast models haven’t picked up on this. But, as the season enters the new month, the Caribbean becomes the more likely spawning ground for tropical storms and hurricanes that sometimes get picked up by fronts and swept across the Florida peninsula.