South Florida temps headed into 40s, forecasters say


Temperatures could fall into the 40s early Monday morning, according to the National Weather Service. (Credit: NWS-Miami)

Get those jackets out of the back of the closet — this weekend’s cold front means business!

Even on the coast, temperatures may drop into the 50s as far south as West Palm Beach and in the interior, the upper 40s in eastern Collier County. Monday morning’s forecast low in Homestead is 56 degrees.

“Sunday and Monday look cooler than normal with highs only in the low- to mid-70s early next week and overnight lows potentially dropping into the upper 40s for the interior and Gulf coast and mid-upper 50s along the east coast,” forecasters said in their Thursday morning analysis from Miami.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal through the end of the month with mostly dry conditions, according to NOAA’s latest long-range forecasts released today.

The agency is predicting drier than normal conditions in the state through February with above-average temperatures through the southern tier of states. But forecasters for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center hedged their bets for December, saying there were equal chances of above, below or normal temperatures for next month.

Flooding caused by seasonally high tides should begin tapering off on Friday, the National Weather Service in Miami said.



Only scattered convection was popping up in the Caribbean Thursday, but the National Hurricane Center is still high on 90L developing. (Credit: NOAA)

Invest 90L could still develop over the weekend — the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 70 percent chance of becoming a depression or tropical storm over the next five days — but it continued to look very messy today despite some spin.

Most forecast models show the system meandering around the Caribbean for several days and then moving into Central America. A couple of outliers want to send it up to Cuba and one moves 90L over the Yucatan Peninsula.

There are only 13 days left in the official 2016 hurricane season so 90L better keep an eye on the calendar. But December storms are rare but not unheard of. There was an unnamed storm in December of 2013 (spotted in post-season analysis), but the last named December system was Tropical Storm Olga, which dissipated on Dec. 13.

It later sloshed ashore in West-Central Florida as a remnant low.




New tropical storm could be forming; weekend cold snap takes aim at Florida


An area of low pressure forming in the southern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday could become the 2016 hurricane season’s 15th named storm. (Credit: NOAA)

With just two weeks left in the official hurricane season, the Caribbean is trying to spin up one more storm — a system that could meander near the Central American coast as Thanksgiving approaches.

There were signs of organization already on Tuesday, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami upped chances of development to 80 percent by the weekend.

What eventually happens to this low — which would be named Tropical Storm Otto if it can brew up sustained winds of at least 39 mph — is unclear, with forecast models all over the board. Some show it remaining nearly stationary for several days before jogging west and running into Central America.

The last year with this kind of late-season development was 2013, when Tropical Storm Melissa formed southeast of Bermuda on Nov. 18 and peaked with 65 mph winds. That was followed up by an unnamed subtropical storm on Dec. 5, which the NHC discovered in its post-season analysis.


Forecast tracks for Invest 90L. (Credit: SFWMD)


Time to break out the sweaters and jackets!

How does this sound for a temperature next Monday: 72 degrees. Yes, that’s the forecast high in West Palm Beach, not the low.

The cold front that sagged through South Florida on Monday brought cooler air and couple of spotty showers, and forecast highs this week are in the upper 70s. But then another weekend cold front blows through South Florida, driving coastal lows down to near 60.

Sunday’s foreast high is 73; 72 on Monday.

Near Lake Okeechobee, lows Sunday night should be in the mid-40s, and upper 30s are expected in North Florida.

It now looks like the second half of November will be cooler than normal through the Florida peninsula, with drier than normal conditions holding on into December. That’s according to the latest forecasts by the Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA is still predicting a warm and dry winter in Florida due to La Niña in the Pacific. The agency’s updated winter forecast will be posted on Thursday.

AccuWeather says the Florida cold snap will be short-lived, though, with highs returning to the low 80s for Thanksgiving.

Coastal flooding slams South Florida; Hurricane Center watching Caribbean


(Credit: NWS-Miami)

A full moon and its closest approach to Earth add up to a flood advisory for Florida’s East Coast. Above-normal tides are expected through at least mid-week, according to meteorologist Arlena Moses at the National Weather Service in Miami.

The advisory runs through 4 p.m. Wednesday, but the event should peak Tuesday and Wednesday. Watch for road closures and flooding of roads.

Several vulnerable areas around South Florida are generally at risk for this type of flooding, including the west side of Miami Beach, Fort Lauderdale Beach and Palm Beach, where the Lake Trail on the island’s west side is often under water.

Also, sections of Flagler Drive in West Palm Beach, from Southern Boulevard north to downtown, may be flooded due to water backing in from the Intracoastal.

Central Florida, meanwhile, was dealing with heavy fog Sunday morning with visibility of less than a quarter of a mile from Titusville west into Orlando and north to Daytona Beach.



The National Hurricane Center is watching an area in the southern Caribbean for development. (Credit: NHC)

A parting shot from the 2016 hurricane season may arrive just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday week, as a low in the southern Caribbean and spins north or northeast.

That’s the scenario described by the ECMWF, which predicts that a tropical storm or hurricane could be just south of Jamaica a day or two before Thanksgiving.

The GFS has shown similar forecasts, but Sunday’s early run instead backs the low into Central America.

The Canadian model (CMC) cranks the low up next Friday, drags it up over Jamaica on Monday and Tuesday of Thanksgiving week, and then sends it toward Haiti — in the same spot ravaged by Hurricane Matthew in October.

The Navy model (NAVGEM) forecasts a broad low approaching Jamaica next weekend.

There’s no indication that it will have any impacts on Florida, as models seem to agree on a track to the northeast or east-northeast once it gets past the Greater Antilles.

The National Hurricane Center is giving the area a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression — or Tropical Storm Otto — late this week as it drifts toward the north or northeast.

Weekend lake-effect snow to smack Northeast; tropics may perk up


Cold air will be sweeping down from Canada late this week, impacting most of the country all the way down to the Florida peninsula. (Credit: NOAA)

Here we go — the Northeast will get its first taste of winter this weekend with lake-effect snow impacting parts of the snow belt and chilly temperatures stretching all the way down to Baltimore and into the Southeast.

Cold air will sweep into Upstate New York on Friday and highs won’t even make it to 50 degrees on Veterans Day in Buffalo, according to the National Weather Service.

On Friday night, rain showers move in and as the low temperature bottoms out at around 34 degrees, residents may wake up early Saturday morning to snow showers.

AccuWeather is predicting “a coating to areas that have the most persistent snow showers,” and roads may become slick. Snow showers may persist all day Saturday in higher elevations of New York and Pennsylvania.

“Enough snow may fall to shovel, especially across the Catskills, Adirondacks and White and Green Mountains by Saturday night,” the commercial forecasting service says.

National Weather Service forecasters in Buffalo said on Tuesday: “While this will not be a
significant event, there could be enough snow in these favored areas for minor accumulations.”

Forecast lows in Boston Friday night and Saturday night are 36 and 33, respectively. New York is forecast to drop into the upper 30s and Saturday night’s forecast low in Baltimore is 34.

In fact, overnight lows on Saturday night are expected to fall into the 30s as far south as Atlanta.

In Florida, weekend lows will range from around 50 in North Florida to the mid-60s in West Palm Beach and South Florida and around 70 in the Keys.



The GFS forecast for Thanksgiving week. (Credit: NOAA)

Despite the active pattern of cold fronts sweeping across the North American continent, the tropics may not have wrapped up its business for the season.

Major models continue to predict that a low will brew up in the Caribbean toward the middle or end of next week and move north toward Cuba or Hispaniola.

Tuesday’s model runs suggest that whatever forms will be pushed into the Atlantic well east of the Bahamas.

The outlier is the Canadian model (CMC), which shows another low developing off Northeast Florida and moving south toward the Northwestern Bahamas late next week and into the pre-Thanksgiving Day weekend.

Hurricane Center watching Atlantic low for development


An area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic has a 10 percent of development by Saturday and a 20 percent chance by Tuesday. (Credit: NHC)

With just 27 days left in the 2016 hurricane season, another potential Otto has popped up on the National Hurricane Center map. A non-tropical area of low pressure about 1,000 northeast of the Leeward Islands could become subtropical as it moves toward the northeast, NHC forecasters said.

They gave it a 20 percent chance of becoming a depression — or Subtropical Storm Otto — over the next five days as it moves toward the north-northeast.

The GFS and ECMWF both predict some development from the system, but nothing that should affect land.

Climatology does suggest that the Atlantic Basin could squeeze out one more named storm, and forecast models have been running hot and cold regarding possible development this month in the Caribbean.

But nothing has come together so far. With the exception of the area under scrutiny by the NHC, the ultra-long-range GFS looks fairly quiet through at least the middle of the month.

By the way: Whether the Atlantic season ends with another named storm or not, 2016 is going to be a year in which the long-range forecasting services ended up looking pretty good.

Current storm totals stand at 14 named systems, six hurricanes and three majors. Colorado State University’s June 1 forecast was for 14 named storms, six hurricanes and two majors. The United Kingdom’s Tropical Storm Risk was a little on the high side with its May 27 forecast for 17 storms, nine hurricanes and four majors.

NOAA fell within its own margin of error with its May 27 forecast for 10-16 named storms, four to eight hurricanes and one to four majors.



Slightly cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the start of the weekend. (Credit: NWS-Miami)

OCTOBER IN REVIEW: Two major South Florida weather sites — Miami and Naples — had a top 10 warmest October, the National Weather Service reported Thursday. Miami’s overall average temperature was 80.7 degrees, making it the seventh-warmest October on record. Naples had its ninth-warmest October, with an average temperature of 79.3 degrees.

West Palm Beach had its 12th-warmest October with an average temperature of 80.1. Temperatures in Fort Lauderdale, though, were slightly below average.

Monthly precipitation in South Florida was slightly below average in many areas, but mostly above normal on Florida’s East-Central coast after its close encounter with Hurricane Matthew.

On the lookout for Otto; Florida’s first real cold front may sweep through next weekend


MONDAY UPDATE: A developing low near the Bahamas was given a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression, or Tropical Storm Otto, by the end of the week. The system is forecast to move north or north-northwest, remaining off Florida’s coast. The storm is expected to get picked up by a cold front by next weekend and pushed out to sea, bringing cooler and drier weather to the Florida peninsula. Low temperatures Saturday night could be near 60 north of Lake Okeechobee, and Sunday’s forecast high in West Palm Beach is 79. (Credit: NHC/ NWS)

ORIGINAL POST: Climatology suggests that the Atlantic hurricane season will squeeze at least one or two more named storms out of the remaining 46 days, and the first hint that Tropical Storm Otto may be right around the corner has popped up on the National Hurricane Center map.

A trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level low could provide the seeds for the system, currently dumping heavy rains in the Bahamas.

NHC forecasters are giving the area a 20 percent chance of become a depression — or Tropical Storm Otto — by the end of the week.

The GFS shows this system ultimately moving north over the northern Bahamas by late in the week, but very weak and disorganized. The European (ECMWF) has the low a little stronger but remaining east of the Bahamas as it churns north.

The Canadian (CMC) is a little more interesting. It develops the low east of the Bahamas on Tuesday, takes it west toward Grand Bahama Island and then curves it northeast along the Carolina coast over the upcoming weekend.

The Navy model (NAVGEM) suggests a similar scenario, delaying development of the system until it gets east of the South Carolina coast on Friday.

After that, the GFS keeps the tropical map clear through the rest of the month.

On average, one named tropical system forms in the Atlantic in November. Last year, the season was capped off with Hurricane Kate, which formed north of Hispaniola and then curved out to sea the second week of November as a Category 1.

November 2013 featured Tropical Storm Melissa out in the far eastern Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Sean formed on Nov. 6, 2011 north of the Lesser Antilles and then sped northeast out to sea.


There’s a coastal flood advisory in effect through Monday night in Palm Beach County — and up the coast into East-Central Florida — due to seasonal king tides. On top of that, brisk easterly winds with gusts of up to 21 mph are pushing water toward the coast, and rain chances will be at 30-50 percent through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Once the tropical system mentioned above moves out of the area, a cold front may sweep into South Florida for the weekend, forecasters said. Highs may be only in the upper 70s with drier air in place — a real start to Florida’s fall weather.

OCTOBER BY THE NUMBERS: Temperatures in South Florida have been running above normal with slightly above normal precipitation, due mostly to the swipe by Hurricane Mathew. The one exception is the Fort Lauderdale area, where temperatures have been normal with a 1.23-inch rainfall deficit.

Central Florida rainfall is well above normal due to Matthew.