CHANCES DIMINISHING: Odds for development of disturbance 92L were cut back from 70 percent to 60 percent by the National Hurricane Center at 2 p.m. Forecasters said it continued to show signs of organization, but was about to run into high wind shear. (Credit: NHC)
ORIGINAL POST: Florida’s rainy weekend could stretch into a wet week with potential flooding if the tropical disturbance nearing the Lesser Antilles delivers a second precipitation punch to the area on Wednesday or Thursday.
The system, being tracked by the National Hurricane Center as Invest 92L, could be on Florida’s doorstep as early as Wednesday morning. But luckily, conditions are not forecast to be favorable for development, and the major forecast models such as the GFS and European (ECMWF) are not impressed.
Still, after a potential soaking from a tropical wave due to pass over the Florida peninsula Saturday and Sunday, another round of moisture mid-week could trigger flooding issues, the National Weather Service in Miami said.
The system was 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands Friday morning and was “continuing to show signs of organization,” NHC forecasters said. “While it would take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are becoming less favorable for development.”
Once the low gets west of Puerto Rico, wind shear could jump — on Friday the shear was running 30-40 knots.
Still, sea surface temperatures are running about a degree above normal north of the Greater Antilles and around the Bahamas, and warm water is fuel for tropical systems. If it does strengthen, however, the low could be pulled north off the coast of Florida.
National Weather Service forecasters said Friday morning: “The exact details of the weather Tuesday through Thursday will hinge on the exact development and movement of the tropical disturbance currently located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. As of 2 a.m., NHC currently gives this feature a 70 percent change of developing into a tropical cyclone in 2 days and 5 days respectively. It is expected that this feature will continuing moving northwest and potentially be in the Bahamas and South Florida as we head into mid-next week.
“Regardless of development, at this point signs are pointing towards another period of heavy rainfall across the region for at least Tuesday and Wednesday. Which, especially depending on this weekend`s rainfall, may raise flooding concerns across the area.
“All residents and visitors or South Florida need to continue to monitor this tropical disturbance through the weekend.”
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center was showing more than 4 inches of rain falling along the southeast Florida coast through the end of next week.
Disturbance 92L, of course, wasn’t the only player in the Atlantic Basin Friday. Tropical Storm Harvey was battering the Windward Islands, and a second tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic was given a 40 percent chance of development by the NHC over the next five days.
Harvey was forecast to top out as a 70-mph tropical storm on Monday before it rams into Central America. People in the Windward Islands posting on the Caribbean Hurricane Network reported heavy rain and some power outages on Barbados.
Above: Friday’s Caribbean satellite water vapor image showed Tropical Storm Harvey pounding the Windward Islands while tropical disturbance 92L to its northeast was moving into an area of higher wind shear. Below: forecast tracks for 92L. (Credit: NOAA/ NHC/ SFWMD)