Major forecast models Tuesday night were pretty much unanimous in keeping Dorian off the coast of Florida — with a possible brush to North Carolina’s Outer Banks. (Image credit: SFMWD)
5 PM UPDATE: The threat to South Florida by Dorian was over late Tuesday afternoon, but East-Central Florida was in for more blustery weather. Tropical Storm Warnings were discontinued south of the Jupiter Inlet. The mandatory evacuation for the barrier islands was canceled at 4 p.m.
The Hurricane Warning was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Jupiter to the Sebastian Inlet.
A Hurricane Warning remained in effect for East-Central Florida from the Sebastian Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach.
National Weather Service in Melbourne: “Expect increased frequency more rainbands to move across the area and tonight the area along the coast could get into the main rain shield of Dorian. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the coast and hurricane conditions are possible along the Volusia and Brevard coasts. Sustained tropical storm force winds near 40 mph is expected along the immediate Brevard/Volusia coasts with gusts to hurricane force possible.”
Also Tuesday night: Tropical Depression Eight formed in the eastern Atlantic. It was expected to head into the open Atlantic as a tropical storm, not affecting land through at least Sunday.
Forecast models suggest that another tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa behind TD Eight could have the potential to make it across the Atlantic. It was given a 70 percent chance of tropical development over the next five days.
2 PM UPDATE: The storm was moving northwest at 5 mph and was due east of Fort Pierce. On radar, Dorian’s movement seemed to have more of a northerly component, and in fact a turn toward the north-northwest was in the forecast.
The wind field had expanded. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended 175 miles.
ALSO AT 2 PM: The season’s sixth named storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico with 40 mph winds. Tropical Storm Fernand was forecast to come ashore in northeastern Mexico on Wednesday night.
At 11 a.m., Dorian was finally beginning to drift toward the northwest at 2 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. It had dropped to a high-end Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds.
“Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian’s wind field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the Florida east coast,” the NHC said.
- The Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet was discontinued.
- The Tropical Storm Watch from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach was discontinued.
- A Hurricane Warning was still in effect from Jupiter Ponte Vedra Beach.
- A Tropical Storm Warning was still in effect from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter.
(Image credit: NWS-Melbourne)
ORIGINAL POST: Dorian has been stationary for almost 20 hours, its southern eyewall hammering Grand Bahama Island, with rain and wind bands getting flung off from the storm and raking the Florida coastline.
Incredibly, the National Hurricane Center has maintained more or less the same language on the track of the hurricane, which is still forecast to move north-northwest and eventually north and northeast over the Atlantic.
“Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or over the coastline.”
The wind field has expanded in Dorian, but not that much: Hurricane winds extend 45 miles out, and tropical storm winds now expand 160 miles out. Eastern Palm Beach County has been getting tropical storm wind gusts.
Even watches and warnings remain the same, although a Tropical Storm Warning was extended north into coastal Georgia.
The impacts on Florida have been mostly low-key, but squally weather and the threat of stronger winds have hung over the East Coast since Sunday.
From the National Weather Service in Miami Tuesday morning:
“Dorian should move closer to the Florida east coast going into Tuesday. While the center of Dorian is still forecast to remain offshore, periods of tropical storm force winds with some gusts to hurricane force are expected over Palm Beach County through Tuesday night, with the greatest chances over the northeastern portion of the county. Occasional tropical storm force wind gusts from squalls are possible over the rest of South Florida through Tuesday evening.”
NWS Melbourne: “Squalls associated with outer rain bands will produce stronger winds, with potentially damaging wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph likely during today as the bands pivot ashore and well inland. With Dorian approaching a little closer to the area, coverage and intensity of squalls will increase. Beach and coastal zones will see the highest gusts due to proximity to the marine area, however tropical storm gusts in squalls will remain a possibility well inland.”
Winds have been gusting into the low- to mid-30s mph range at Florida’s major airport National Weather Service reporting stations, but there was a gust of 61 mph at the Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County, and a gust of 44 mph at the Frost Science Museum in Miami.
A little more than 2,000 Florida Power & Light customers along the East Coast were without power Tuesday morning, but that’s out of more than 5 million.
RAINFALL REPORT: A CoCoRaHS observer in Lake Worth, Palm Beach County, reported a 24-hour total of 1.71 inches as of Tuesday at 7 a.m. An observer on Singer Island measured 1.53 inches. An observer in Cocoa reported 1.93 inches.
(Image credit: NHC)
TROPICS WATCH: Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was being tracked in the western Gulf of Mexico by the NHC. Forecasters predicted it would become Tropical Storm Fernand late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The northeastern coast of Mexico was under a Tropical Storm Warning.
Three other systems in the Atlantic could become Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda over the next five days. The statistical peak of the hurricane season is seven days away.