UPDATE: The vigorous low pressure system that just entered the Caribbean near the Windward Islands is being watched for possible development at the end of the week as it nears Florida.
“This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola,” NHC forecasters said at 2 p.m.. “Little development of the disturbance is expected due to interaction with land. However, the system is forecast to emerge over the Straits of Florida by the end of the week where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive for development to occur.”
They gave the system, designated 95L, a 10 percent chance of development over the next two days, and 20 percent over five days.
This system is showing up in runs of the legacy GFS, but not the operational model launched in June. It keeps it off the Florida coast.
The European model (ECMWF) doesn’t develop it until it gets further north toward the coast of the Carolinas. The Canadian model (CMC) has a broad area of low pressure at the southwest coast of Florida on Saturday, which then crosses the state, enters the Atlantic and develops near the Carolinas. The German ICON model has a weak system spinning up off Florida’s southeast coast and then heading north.
Here’s what it looked like on satellite mid-afternoon Sunday:
(Image credit: NOAA)
Below normal rainfall is in the forecast for much of Florida during the second week of August, according to the long-range precipitation outlook by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released Saturday. South Florida may see closer to normal precip. (Image credit: NOAA/ CPC)
ORIGINAL POST: West Palm Beach was hammered with 1.33 inches late Saturday, the largest 24-hour total since March 19, when 1.70 inches fell. It cut the July rainfall deficit to 2.14 inches.
In Broward County, North Perry Airport west of Hollywood reported 1.46 inches Saturday — on top of the 2.70 that fell on Friday. The airport’s weather station, in Pembroke Pines, has notched four major rain events this month with rainfall totals over an inch, for a total of 10.14 inches in July.
In East-Central Florida, where forecasters had been warning of another wet start to the weekend, the only site that picked up any appreciable precip was Fort Pierce, which reported 0.09 of an inch.
For a change, the West Coast was mostly dry.
TROPICS WATCH: The operational GFS shows no tropical development through August 13, but Sunday runs of the legacy GFS — remember that NOAA’s new model was unveiled in June, but the old GFS would continue to run into September — has a low spinning up in the Bahamas and ramping up to tropical storm strength over the weekend as it turns north, well off the coast of Florida.
The European (ECMWF) shows something similar, but does not develop the system until it is farther north, off the coast of the Carolinas. The German ICON model hints at a similar scenario.
Officially, the National Hurricane Center is predicting no tropical development through at least Friday.
MAJOR MELT-DOWN: The heat wave that sent temperatures in Europe soaring over 100 degrees — Paris recorded an unprecedented temp of 108.7 — is poised to settle over Greenland during the upcoming week. Meteorologists and other scientists are worried that it could melt billions of tons of ice.
Unlike ice melt over the Arctic Ocean, melting glaciers in Greenland contribute directly to sea rise.
Already this summer, 170 billion tons of ice were lost in July, and another 72 billion tons were lost in June, according to the website Live Science.
The intensity of the ice melt in Greenland has been accelerating since the 1970s, experts say. An average of 50 billion tons were lost each year in the 1970s and 1980s, while an average of 290 billion tons were lost per year from 2010 to 2018.
In 2012, 97 percent of the ice sheet’s surface thawed, and scientists say this year could surpass that record.