Wintry temps in Florida’s forecast next week following wet holiday

Rainfall forecast
Up to 2 inches of rain are in the forecast for Northeast Florida through Friday, according to the National Weather Service. Heavy rain was already drenching parts of South Florida on Tuesday. (Image credit: NWS-Jacksonville)

January-style temperatures — with highs in the low- to mid-70s, and lows in the mid- to upper 50s — are on the way next week for South Florida as November winds down, according to the National Weather Service.

By Monday, even the Treasure Coast may not see 70 degrees for a high, with lows settling close to 50. And interior areas of Central Florida — and up into North Central parts of the state — may see lows in the 40s.

Monday’s forecast high in Jacksonville is only 62.

The wintry temps — for Florida, at least — will follow a wet holiday week. The rain started early Tuesday morning in South Florida as the cold front that blew through on Sunday began climbing back up the peninsula. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport reported 1.85 inches as of 7 a.m., and a half-inch to an inch were common in other areas of the southeast metro areas.

There were some spots of very heavy rain. An observer for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network west of Fort Lauderdale Beach reported 3.84 inches through 7 a.m.

Light amounts were reported on Florida’s West Coast, but that was about to change as rain appeared to be moving in from the Gulf of Mexico.

On top of all of that, a low pressure system expected to form in the Northeast Gulf was forecast to slide across Central or North Florida late Thursday or Friday, providing another soaking for the state as the weekend approaches.

Marathon temps

NATIONWIDE HOT SPOT: Sunday’s cold front began working its way north early Tuesday morning, leaving the Florida Keys in warm, tropical air. As a result, Marathon was the warmest in the U.S. at 8 a.m., with a steamy temperature of 78, according to the National Weather Service in Key West.  Forecast highs in the Keys were in the low 80s. (Image credit: NWS-Key West)

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Monday wind chills could drop into 30s in North Florida, forecasters say

Low temps NFL
Credit: NWS-Jacksonville

Looks like Florida will be on a meteorological rollercoaster over the coming week, with temperatures seesawing and conditions going from dry to wet and back to dry again.

While it’s unclear how much rain may fall on South and Central Florida, forecasters are fairly certain about the upcoming cold front’s impact on North Florida — near-freezing temperatures by Monday morning.

In fact, temperatures west of Jacksonville could plunge almost 50 degrees from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning.

The front, which is expected to sweep down the peninsula late Sunday, should leave most of its cold air behind by the time it stalls out over the Keys, forecasters say. But with the boundary lingering into mid-week — and then pushing back over South Florida Wednesday as a warm front — rain chances in central and southern areas shoot up to 50 percent on Thanksgiving Day.

“There may be enough instability to induce a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon,” NWS forecasters in Miami said.

South Florida temperatures, however, will pretty much stay put, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows in the 60s.

But in North Florida, NWS forecasters in Jacksonville noted Saturday: “Huge temperature swings will occur during the weekend over northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Ahead of an approaching cold front, mostly sunny skies will boost highs to near 80 degrees on Saturday afternoon.

“A few showers will accompany the frontal passage during the predawn and morning hours on Sunday, followed by much colder temperatures on Sunday night. Inland lows will fall into the 30s by Monday morning, with a north-northeasterly breeze dropping wind chills to near freezing for locations west of Interstate 95.”

Forecast models are handling the evolution of a potential low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico differently, so the end-of-the-week forecast for the Florida peninsula remains murky. NOAA’s GFS has all of the moisture clearing out and cooler weather moving in, while the European model (ECMWF) predicts the stalled front will continue to linger.

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(Credit: NOAA/ CPC)

DECEMBER SNEAK PEEK: The Climate Prediction Center’s new long-range forecast, released Friday, calls for below normal precipitation throughout Florida and most of the Central U.S., through December 15. Forecasters hedged their bets on long-range temperatures for the eastern U.S., saying there are equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.

THAT’S ALL FOLKS!? Chances of tropical development for an area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean fell from 20 percent Friday to near-zero on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.

With only 12 days left in the 2017 hurricane season, you have to wonder if Nature might be getting ready to close up shop.

Wet holiday week to be aided by developing Gulf low, forecasters say

Sunday Gulf low

Low pressure was forecast to form in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday in connection with a cold front approaching the Florida peninsula. (Credit: NOAA/ WPC)

The cold front scheduled to roll down the peninsula early next week is now forecast to stall over the keys and then drift back to the north over Central Florida, keeping most of the state in soupy conditions during the holiday week.

Not only that, but the National Weather Service expects the front to spawn a weak low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico that works its way east toward the state by Thanksgiving weekend.

The low showed up in the Friday runs of all of the major forecast models, including the GFS and European (ECMWF) as well as the Canadian (CMC).

NWS forecasters in Miami said in their Friday discussion: “Consensus of model guidance has the shortwave trough deepening into a closed low pressure system on Wednesday, slowly progressing eastward, with the ECMWF continuing its trend of a stronger surface and mid-level low than the GFS.

“A composite of the global model guidance points the front becoming nearly stationary over Central Florida as the closed low in the Gulf moves slowly east through Thanksgiving Day.

“This scenario should keep rain chances fairly high Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day, but with low confidence in the details of the evolving pattern next week, wouldn’t be surprised to see changes in timing and coverage of any precipitation over the next few days.”

For now, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center shows about an inch of rain falling over the next week near Palm Beach, but heavier amounts around the northern Gulf Coast.

Until the front comes into play — it should approach North Florida on Sunday — a Chamber of Commerce weekend looks to be in the works for much of the Florida peninsula. Highs in South Florida are expected to be around 80 with lows in the mid-60s under sunshine and drier conditions.

Rain chances jump to 30 percent Sunday night in South Florida and shoot up to 50 percent by Tuesday.

HISTORICAL NOTE: Next week is the 33rd anniversary of the Thanksgiving storm that raked the Florida peninsula with strong winds and rain. It was a very complex scenario later analyzed by meteorologists and explained in detail in this National Weather Service report.

TROPICS WATCH: The National Hurricane Center said an area in the southern Caribbean had a 20 percent chance of development as it moves north.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the northwestern coast of Colombia, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico through the weekend,” forecasters said in Friday’s Tropical Weather Outlook.

Will Florida cold front flop? Plus, NHC turns attention to Caribbean

Thursday Caribbean sat

TROPICS WATCH: With Invest 96L near the Azores off the boards, National Hurricane Center forecasters turned to the southern Caribbean, where an area of showers and storms was given a 10 percent chance of development over the next two to five days. Most major forecast models, with the exception of the Canadian (CMC), don’t show much potential for this system.

Wind shear is in the 40-50 knot range in the Central Caribbean, although it’s lower in the eastern Caribbean. (Image credits: Top, NOAA; Bottom: NOAA/ NHC)

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It’s beginning to look like next week’s pre-Thanksgiving cold front may be more ho-hum than a holiday game changer.

For one thing, the front is now expected to stall over the southern peninsula or the Keys on Tuesday and leave most of the cooler air to the north, although South Florida’s overnight temperatures could sink into the 60s next week.

Even that would mark a weather pattern change, however.

Through the first half of the month, none of the four National Weather Service official reporting stations — Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach or Naples — had a high temperature below 80 degrees. Miami had three highs of 87, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach had a few days that reached 85, and Naples had two high temperatures of 86.

Key West actually had a high of 79 Wednesday to round out the first half of the month, but that was primarily because measurable rain fell for only the second time in November — 0.03 of an inch.

In Central Florida, Melbourne, Vero Beach and Fort Pierce each had one sub-80-degree day this month; Orlando had four.

On Florida’s West Coast, Tampa had one high below 80; Fort Myers, zero.

Major weather observation sites around Florida have been running 2-5 degrees above average during the first half of November, and next week’s temperatures may cool slightly into the more normal range.

In South Florida, that’s high 70s to near 80 during the day and upper 60s at night.

The new long-range forecasts issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center Thursday called for above-normal temperatures in Florida from December through February, with below-average precipitation.

This is mostly due to the La Niña effect, which tends to keep the southern tier of states warm and dry in the winter.

 

Will Florida’s Thanksgiving be a turkey or a piece of cake? Check out the forecasts

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A cold Thanksgiving week is expected in the East, with near-normal temperatures in the Central U.S. and warmer weather in the West. (Image credit: NOAA/ CPC)

Nature is getting ready to dish up some cooler weather for Thanksgiving in Florida, with cloudy mashed potato skies in the south and a side order of spotty showers.

Weather Underground is calling for a blustery high of 74 in Palm Beach; 76 in Miami; and 78 in Key West with a chance of rain. The West Coast — and North-Central Florida — may be sunnier but cooler with a forecast high of 74 in Naples, 70 in Tampa and 75 in Orlando..

Thanksgiving Day is forecast to be sunny in Gainesville but the high won’t reach 70 on the way to a chilly overnight low of 45.

AccuWeather is predicting slightly warmer temperatures around the state, but a chance of rain pretty much everywhere.

We’re still a week out from the holiday, so nature has time to reconsider the menu. The National Weather Service forecast won’t come out of the oven until Friday.

Regardless of what shows up on the table, Florida is likely to have some of the nicest holiday weather in the country, with the possible exception of the Southwest, where the forecast high from Phoenix to Los Angeles is around 80 under sunny skies.

Chicago and Minneapolis are forecast to barely make it above freezing on Thanksgiving; and New York will top out in the low 40s.

In the West, Denver is expected to be sunny but cool with a high in the upper 50s; Seattle’s forecast is for low 50s and rain.

The Farmers’ Almanac released its Thanksgiving forecast this week, calling for rain mixed with snow in parts of the Northeast; “deteriorating conditions” with cold and wet weather around the Great Lakes; cold wind and rain around most of the Southeast; snow in the Great Plains; and “unsettled” weather across much of the Southwest, including snow in the mountains of Nevada and California.

TROPICS WATCH: It appeared Wednesday morning that Invest 96L was running out of steam in the North Atlantic as it neared the Azores. The National Hurricane Center knocked down development chances from 50 percent to just 10 percent. Forecasters said dissipation was likely over the next two days as it continues to move northeast.

Elsewhere, Wednesday morning’s run of the GFS backed away from any significant development in the Caribbean over the next week to 10 days, although the Canadian model (CMC) continued to advertise a storm that slides over Jamaica on Wednesday and Eastern Cuba on Thanksgiving Day.

Thanksgiving week cold front may gobble up Florida heat, humidity

Cooling trend

South Florida temps are forecast to cool down heading into the weekend, with a more significant shot of cool, dry air for Thanksgiving week. (Image credit: NWS-Miami)

We’re still in the first half of November, but weather on Florida’s East Coast over the last week to 10 days has been behaving more like the rainy season than the start of the dry season. Warm daytime temperatures are broken by afternoon thunderstorms and the occasional bout of heavy rain.

Dew points have been mostly in the low- to mid-70s in South Florida and the Keys, and as far north as Vero Beach. Those are dew points you tend to see in September, not November.

The heat index Sunday topped out at 91 degrees in Miami.

Rain chances in southeastern Florida remain in the 40-50 percent range through Wednesday night.

That pattern may finally be on its way out for good next weekend, according to the National Weather Service, as a game-changing front finally makes it through the peninsula.

Morning temperatures next Monday, November 20 — according to Weather Underground — could dip into the 50s as far south as coastal Palm Beach County, with highs only in the low- to mid-70s during the days leading up to Thursday, Thanksgiving Day.

Out in the western communities and the Everglades, temperatures could bottom out closer to 50. Central Florida may dip into the 40s.

After a brief warm-up mid-week and the start of Thanksgiving weekend, another shot of cool and dry air — but not cold — may settle in for the final week of the month, according to AccuWeather.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts below normal precipitation taking hold in Florida — and much of the Southeastern U.S. — the last week in November and the first week of December.

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(Credit: NHC)

TROPICS WATCH: Invest 96L southwest of the Azores in the Atlantic had a 30-50 percent chance of becoming a subtropical system later this week, the National Hurricane Center said Monday. On its current path, it could impact the Azores as Subtropical Storm Sean, or perhaps as a depression.

Monday’s run of the GFS continued to suggest the development of a storm in the southern Caribbean that whacks Central America Thanksgiving weekend. And both the GFS and the European (ECMWF) forecast a weak low forming over the Central Bahamas mid-week and then strengthening as it slides to the northeast.

Development chances increase in Atlantic; gusty weather continues in Florida

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An area of disturbed weather southwest of the Azores could become Subtropical Storm Sean later this week. (Credit: NHC)

Is Sean lurking in the Atlantic?

The National Hurricane Center upped chances of development in the Atlantic on Sunday — it’s likely to be subtropical — for an area of low pressure 700 miles southwest of the Azores. The system, moving northeast, had a 40 percent chance of becoming Subtropical Storm Sean by the end of the week, forecasters said.

It was designated Invest 96L by the NHC. Forecast models showed thelow moving northeast but then possibly making a turn back toward the southwest.

If Sean does form, it would be the furthest the Atlantic season has gone in the alphabet since 2012, when the season was rounded out with Hurricane Sandy and Tropical Storm Tony.

Sunday’s run of the GFS showed a system forming off the coast of Central America on Thanksgiving Day and moving into Nicaragua or Honduras. NASA’s GEOS-5 has an area of low pressure spinning into Hispaniola next weekend.

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Small Craft Advisory

Breezy weather continued Sunday, and a Small Craft Advisory was in effect for the Florida Keys. (Credit: NWS-Key West)

Wet and windy weather will likely continue through at least mid-week on Florida’s East Coast, the National Weather Service said Sunday.

A wind gust of 36 mph was reported off Melbourne’s coast Saturday. Top gusts elsewhere included 32 mph in Jacksonville; 26 mph in Fort Pierce; 25 mph in West Palm Beach; 23 mph in Fort Lauderdale and 20 mph in Miami.

Fowey Rocks Lighthouse in Biscayne Bay reported a gust of 34 mph.

Rainfall amounts of up to a half-inch were reported along Florida’s East-Central Coast from Brevard County south to St. Lucie County. North and south of that, rainfall totals were relatively light.

More rain is in the forecast as a second cold front rolls toward the Florida peninsula mid-week, according to forecasters. Rain chances remain in the 40-50 percent range through Wednesday — and breezy conditions are expected to continue.