Saturday will be the focus of potentially heavy rains over the southern half of the peninsula (above, credit: NOAA/ WPC) and possible severe weather, including gusty winds and tornadoes over the extreme southern peninsula and the Keys (below, credit: NOAA/ SPC).
Florida is getting ready for a super-stormy Super Bowl Weekend, although the weather for the final quarter of the weekend on Sunday night in Miami should be cool and dry.
Rainfall totals are notoriously difficult to predict, but here’s what the National Weather Service envisions for the next day or so from the soggy systems that are forecast to converge over the Florida peninsula, and the Keys, over the next day or two:
Through 7 p.m. Saturday: Naples, 1.17 inches; Miami, 0.87; amd West Palm Beach, 0.89. Central (through Monday 7 a.m.): Stuart, 0.77; Vero Beach, 0.69; Melbourne, 0.52; and Orlando, 0.39.
West Central: Tampa, 0.25; Lakeland, 0.75 inches; and Fort Myers, 1.25 inches.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center put the southern portion of the Florida peninsula under a level one “Marginal Risk” for Excessive Rainrfall, which means flooding is a possibility, with the focus on Southwest Florida early on Saturday and the rest of the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
Also, the Storm Prediction Center has the southern tip of the peninsula, along with the Keys at level two “Slight Risk” for severe storms, including strong winds and tornadoes, south of a line from Naples to Boca Raton; and at level one “Marginal Risk” for a slice to the north which includes West Palm Beach and Fort Myers.
The SPC said Friday: “Precipitation may train across the same region resulting in an increased potential for flash flooding, especially Saturday morning into the afternoon hours … local amounts in the 2-4″ range would not be a surprise.”
LONG-RANGE: This is the last day of the first month of the first year of the new decade (easier to write than it is to say), and the Climate Prediction Center will have an updated February forecast later in the day, which I will post.
For the time being, once this strong cold front moves through Florida on Sunday, giving us a couple of days of chilly, well-below normal weather, a warm-up is on the agenda for mid-week.
After that, predictions from the CPC call for above normal temperatures, and above normal precipitation, across the entire state from February 5-13.
HOT TOPICS: Today rounds out Severe Weather Awareness Week with a look at extreme heat and wildfires. The Florida peninsula has had decent rainfall so far this winter, a trend forecast to continue in February, so we’ll see how that impacts wildfire season this spring.
We know heat is coming — that’s a given. Surrounded by water, humidity is high in Florida and the heat index can become a health hazard.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management notes: “The hottest temperature ever recorded in Florida was 109 degrees Fahrenheit on June 29, 1931, in Monticello. In 2010, a heat index of 124 degrees was observed at the Apalachicola Airport.”