Heat index could hit 110 in South Florida; advisories posted

Thursday heat index

Heat advisories were posted through 7 p.m. Thursday. (Credit: NWS-Miami)

Rain associated with Tropical Storm Emily have kept a lid on temperatures, but as the week ends it’s back into the frying pan for South Florida as heat index values soar to as high as 110 degrees.

In fact, actual temperatures through the middle of next week may be “near record levels,” National Weather Service forecasters in Miami said in their Thursday morning analysis.

A heat advisory was issued for interior portions of South Florida and the West Coast through 7 p.m. Although a light sea breeze may keep metro areas of southeastern Florida out of the advisory, even along the coast the heat index was forecast to hit at least 103. [UPDATE: With heat index readings approaching 108 on the southeastern coast, the heat advisory was expanded to include the metro areas on Thursday afternoon.]

Warm overnight temperatures look to be locked into place, too, and forecasters said metro areas may not dip below 80 through mid-week.

The heat index at Palm Beach International Airport Wednesday topped out at 104; it was 103 in Miami; 102 in Fort Lauderdale and 104 in Naples.

North Florida rain
It’s a different story to the north, with more rain in the forecast. Click on image for link to larger original. (Credit: NWS-Jacksonville)

Wetter conditions are expected in Central Florida for at least another day, the National Weather Service in Melbourne said.

The stalled cold front that impacted the entire state this week remains draped over North Florida and southern Georgia, and 2-4 inches of additional rain could cause flooding in the Jacksonville area. Drier weather is on tap for the weekend and earlier next week.

 

two_atl_5d0

A large tropical wave has a 70 percent chance to develop in the Atlantic. A system in the eastern Caribbean was given a 20 percent chance. (Credit: NHC)

TROPICS WATCH: A tropical wave that just rolled off the coast of Africa could become the season’s first hurricane in the Atlantic next week if some model forecasts pan out. The National Hurricane Center took notice Thursday and gave the system a 60 percent chance of development by Tuesday.

One run of the GFS showed the disturbance — already designated Invest 99L by the NHC — ramping up northeast of the Bahamas, but a more southerly track into the Caribbean is also possible.

The European (ECMWF) shows weaker development but the Canadian model (CMC) has a very potent storm just north of Puerto Rico on August 13. The Navy’s model (NAVGEM) also develops it but not as strong.

storm_99

Above: Forecast model tracks for Invest 99L. (Credit: SFWMD) Below: Thursday satellite image shows the jumbo-sized wave that has moved off the coast of Africa. (Credit: NOAA)

99L satellite

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Author: jnelander

Freelance writer and editor

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