MONDAY UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center added a second suspicious system to its forecast map — a disturbance to the east-southeast of Invest 95L. Forecasters gave 95L a 50 percent chance of development by the end of the week, while the tropical wave to the east has a 30 percent chance. The forecast for 95L is for a due west heading toward the Windward Islands . If it stays together over the normally hostile Caribbean, it could later impact Central America. (Credit: NHC)
The second half of July begins with a tropical bang, as a new Atlantic disturbance pops up on the National Hurricane Center forecast map.
The system was given a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression, or Tropical Storm Don, by Friday. It’s tracking toward the west and early forecast models suggest it will be a low rider, skirting South America through the Caribbean and perhaps eventually slamming into Central America.
The first set of intensity models, for whatever they’re worth — and it’s usually not very much — show the system, tagged Invest 95L, becoming a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane in five days.
Looking directly at the global forecast models, Sunday morning’s run of the GFS viewed 95L with a shrug, keeping it too close to the South American coastline to get revved up. The European (ECMWF) was equally unenthusiastic.
The Canadian (CMC) developed 95L, ramming it into Central America. The Navy model (NAVGEM), presented the most intriguing scenario, bringing the system through the Caribbean and then northwest off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula next Sunday. However, a later run of the NAVGEM looked to be backing off that idea.
Nonetheless, the NHC is taking the system seriously and has tentatively scheduled an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission to look at it on Monday afternoon.
National Weather Service forecasters were watching a tropical wave in the Bahamas on Sunday. (Credit: NWS-Miami)
Meanwhile, another tropical wave was slated to slide across South Florida Sunday, with the heaviest rain potentially soaking the extreme southern peninsula as the system sags a bit to the south.
Sunday morning radar showed showers and storms heading into Broward County from the Atlantic. Palm Beach and Miami were dry, but National Weather Service forecasters say coverage will slowly increase through Monday as winds swing around to the south, bringing in additional tropical moisture.
Sunday’s rains may miss Central Florida but precipitation chances jump during the work week, according to the National Weather Service. A trough of low pressure sliding through the southeastern U.S. keeps rain chances high in the central peninsula and North Florida.
In fact, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a wet week for most of Florida, all the way from the Everglades up through Orlando and north toward Georgia.