The remnants of Tropical Depression Four were firing up convection north of the Lesser Antilles Sunday. (Credit: NOAA)
SUNDAY UPDATE: West Palm Beach reported 0.57 of an inch of rain Saturday, the first measurable precipitation since July 4. Fort Lauderdale had 0.15 while Miami measured just a trace and Naples had no rain.
In East-Central Florida, Daytona Beach picked up 0.76 of an inch while almost an inch fell officially in Orlando. But Melbourne and Vero Beach reported only a trace of rain. Tampa had 0.36 of an inch.
The remnants of Tropical Depression Four — which blew up an impressive amount of convection late Saturday — are forecast by the National Weather Service in Miami to move across South Florida late in the week.
In its Sunday tropical weather discussion, the National Hurricane Center said: “Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds to affect mainly the northeastern Caribbean today and tonight, with the majority of the activity shifting west-northwest towards the general vicinity of the southeastern Bahamas and that of the northern and eastern portions of Hispaniola Monday through Tuesday.”
ORIGINAL POST: Most of the southeastern U.S. — including the Florida peninsula — should be on the lookout for thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather over the weekend, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
A wide swath of territory from Oklahoma through the Gulf States and into the Carolinas, as well as Florida’s central and southern peninsula, is at risk. The greatest risk will be in the Mid-Atlantic States including North Carolina and Virginia.
But, as has been the case for much of the summer so far, Florida’s coastal areas may not see much rain as sea breezes push storms inland from both the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
The Weather Prediction Center indicates that most of the rain over the weekend will be focused around Lake Okeechobee and points to the north and west. Up to an inch and a quarter could fall in these areas, forecasters said.
RECORD WATCH: Fort Lauderdale’s low on Friday, 83, tied the record warm low for the date set just last year. The low was 81 in Miami — where it hasn’t been below 80 degrees since June 29 — and 79 in West Palm Beach. The low in Naples was 76.
SUNDAY NIGHT: The NHC gave the wave moving off the coast of Africa a 20 percent chance of development by the end of the week as it moves west across the Atlantic. The GFS is enthusiastic about this system … other models not so much. (Credit: NHC)
TROPICS TALK: The GFS continues to show a tropical system spinning through the Caribbean next weekend. The European (ECMWF) has backed off, predicting that the system will bump into South America before gaining any tropical traction.
The Canadian (CMC) keeps it far enough north to show a tropical storm in the Caribbean, but weaker than the GFS.
The National Hurricane Center, which issued its last advisory Friday on Tropical Depression Four, is predicting no tropical development in the Atlantic through at least Thursday.
The remnants of TD Four may bring some showers to South Florida next week, the National Weather Service in Miami says.