Major forecast models hop on tropical development bandwagon for new Atlantic wave

Caribbean satellite

TD FOUR DISSIPATES: The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on the season’s fourth tropical depression east of the Lesser Antilles Friday at 5 p.m. The system was battered by dry air and wind shear. Forecasters said they did not anticipate regeneration. (Credit: NOAA)

You can throw the usual July peace and quiet in the Atlantic Basin out the window this year as tropical activity kicks into high gear. Things may in fact start calming down later in the month, but there’s no sign of that quite yet.

While Tropical Depression Four struggles in the Central Atlantic, another wave is forecast to roll off the coast of Africa over the weekend that could cause problems over the next 10 days anywhere from the Caribbean north to the Bahamas.

In short, we could be tracking Invest 95L in about a week, according to the major global forecasting models. Both the GFS and the European (ECMWF) show major storms developing on the way to the Lesser Antilles. On Thursday night, GFS runs were targeting Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Friday’s runs showed a southern track through the Caribbean and into Central America.

The Euro is suggesting a strong storm hitting the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico in about 10 days.

As for TD Four, even this isn’t a complete write-off, although the National Hurricane Center is forecasting dissipation east of the Bahamas by Monday.

NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart said in Friday morning’s TD Four analysis that there was “one important caveat to note and that is the UKMET model, which continues to show less weakening and even strengthening in 96 and 120 hours when the system is approaching the Bahamas. Although the other global and regional models do not show regeneration at this time, they do however show similar improving upper-level wind conditions east of Florida by 120 hours.”

Friday morning’s run of the Canadian model (CMC) has TD Four restrengthening near Grand Bahama Island by mid-week and then heading north, but staying off the U.S. coast.

Fingers remain crossed that Florida stays out of the line of tropical fire. But with heat index values at or over 100 degrees across the peninsula, some rain would be more than welcome. However, the National Weather Service is not optimistic about significant rainfall for the East Coast metro areas through next week.

Rain chances on the East Coast reach 40 percent on Saturday, but then fall off to 30 percent Sunday and stay at around 20-30 percent for much of the rest of the week.

Most coastal locations will be showing significant precipitation shortfalls for the first week of July. The deficit will be approaching an inch and a half at Palm Beach International Airport by this weekend.


Author: jnelander

Freelance writer and editor

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