Look for a changing of the weather guard over South Florida, with the torrential rains of the past few weeks fading in favor of a more typical July — read drier — pattern.
That’s not to say that the Florida peninsula will return to the dry seasonal precipitation pace that held sway in spring. But the National Weather Service has begun ratcheting down rain chances, especially for East Coast metro areas, into the 20 percent range instead of the 70-80 percent we’ve been seeing.
With Potential Tropical Cyclone Three — a sloppy mess in the Gulf of Mexico that could be named a subtropical storm later on Tuesday — aiming for Louisiana or Texas, and Tropical Storm Bret on a date with dissipation in the Caribbean, the Florida peninsula should be increasingly under the influence of high pressure in the Atlantic.
Forecasters say a stalled cold front over North-Central Florida early next week may deliver another period of showers and storms over South and Central Florida, but all-in-all, better beach weather beckons.
Monthly rainfall totals are in double digits everywhere in South Florida, and respectable totals in East-Central Florida are signficantly above average. West-Central Florida has also had a soggy few weeks, with rainfall totals approaching 10 inches in Tampa, while St. Petersburg-Clearwater is reporting a fat 14.33 inches for June through Monday.
The Keys are running around 3 inches on the plus side.
But NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center took out its beige marker for the last week in June for South Florida, its graphical forecast map indicating below normal precipitation to round out the month. Central and North-Central Florida may see close to average precipitation.
July is expected to kick off with normal rainfall levels throughout the state.
After a rain-cooled June that brought many Florida locations normal, or slightly below normal, temperatures, above-average heat is likely to fire up again through at least the first week of July, the CPC says.
TROPICS TALK: Looking beyond PTC Three and Tropical Storm Bret, waves continue to roll of the coast of Africa, and the GFS grabs on to one of them for potential development around July 5. But the GFS is infamous for jumping the long-range gun.
The European model (ECMWF) shows clear sailing over the next 10 days and even the hyperactive Canadian model (CMC) is subdued, save for the suggestion of a Mid-Atlantic system as the month ends.
RECORD WATCH: The low in Melbourne on Monday was 78 degrees, which set a record for the warmest minimum temperature for the date, beating the old mark of 77 set in 2012.
UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center finally upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone Three to Tropical Storm Cindy at 2 p.m. EDT. The storm was bound for a landfall early Thursday morning around the Louisiana/ Texas border, forecasters said. Winds were clocked at 45 mph in the Central Gulf of Mexico and Cindy was stationary. In the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Bret was downgraded to a tropical wave as it sped west at 23 mph. (Image credit: NHC)