Tropical system moves into Gulf; Saharan air likely for South Florida

93L Sat

The poorly defined center of Invest 93L was near the northeastern tip of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Monday morning. (Credit: NOAA)

The week begins with an alphabet soup of tropical weather in the Atlantic, and forecasters glued to incoming data to see how it all unfolds. There’s PTC Two or 92L east of the Windward Islands — and then there’s 93L, which could become TD Three … or could it become PTC Three?

And which ones will become Bret or Cindy? None of the above?

National Hurricane Center forecasters predict Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will become Tropical Depression Two, or perhaps Tropical Storm Bret, by late Monday. But after moving through the islands the storm is forecast to throttle down — and eventually dissipate — in the Central Caribbean.

Even if it would survive in some form, forecast models are nearly unanimous in bringing the system or its remnants into Central America. It should have no impact on Florida weather.

The system off the Yucatan, 93L, has been pushing a few bands of showers and storms across South Florida since Sunday. The NHC gives it an 80-90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next two to five days.

The GFS has 93L making landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Thursday morning. The European continues to take the system into northern Mexico or South Texas on Thursday; the Canadian model (CMC) and Navy model (NAVGEM) take it into the northern Gulf Coast near the Texas/ Louisiana border on Thursday night.

Of the hurricane models, the HWRF takes a bit stronger 93L into Louisiana late Wednesday night.

Based on these forecasts, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is forecasting just under 10 inches of rain this week in coastal Louisiana, with up to 5 inches of rain in the western Florida panhandle.

Although the northwestern Florida peninsula may get as much as 2 inches of rain through the week and into the weekend, South Florida should see much lighter amounts, especially on the East Coast.

“The forecast will continue to depict a typical summertime weather pattern with increasing high pressure over the western Atlantic bringing easterly-southeasterly flow across the state,” the National Weather Service in Miami said in Monday’s forecast discussion. “Also, by Wednesday night and into Thursday, there are increasing chances of an intrusion of Saharan dust and drier air into the region.”

Palm Beach International Airport picked up a third of an inch of rain Sunday, pushing June totals over the 10-inch mark for the first time since January 2014. Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Naples have had almost a foot of rain as of Sunday (11.81, 11.49 and 11.95 respecitvely).

One positive effect of all the rain is that June temperatures have been running about 1-2 degrees below normal in West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale. The average high in West Palm Beach has been 86 with an average low of 74. Although that sounds comfortable, dew points have been very high.

June temperatures in Miami and Naples have been slightly above average, however.

Temperatures in the Keys have been right around the normal mark.

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Author: jnelander

Freelance writer and editor

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