UPDATE: The tropical wave in the Central Atlantic was designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center. It was plotted at 5N 33.3W, about a thousand miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and 3,400 miles east-southeast of Miami. Early forecast models showed the system just clearing the northern coast of South America and moving northwest in the Caribbean. The eastern Caribbean is often a graveyard for Cape Verde storms, but early intensity models show 92L achieving and maintaining tropical storm strength through five days. (Image credit: SFWMD)
Two areas of disturbed weather were upgraded Friday by the National Hurricane Center. (Credit: NHC)
Weather warning: A pattern shift may be dead ahead.
Forecasts for next week’s tropical weather are trending far enough west that Florida may be out of the picture for any significant rainfall. In fact, as we head toward July a typically drier pattern may be setting up, the National Weather Service says.
Normal July rainfall drops off in a major way from average June precipitation, falling from 8.3 inches to 5.76 inches in West Palm Beach and from 9.67 inches to 6.5 inches in Miami.
So climatology suggests that we may be moving toward a drier summer period.
Last year, July was uncommonly dry, with Palm Beach International Airport recording just 1.59 inches of rain and Miami, 4.11 inches.
That was particularly bad news since July 2016 was the hottest on record.
The Climate Prediction Center is noncommittal for July rainfall, predicting above-normal precipitation for the northern Gulf Coast while shrugging off most of the rest of the country. There’s a big question mark over the Florida peninsula, and rainfall totals will probably depend in part on how active the tropics will be next month.
As for the two systems on the National Hurricane Center map currently, both earned upgrades overnight. The Low that is progged to form over the Yucatan was given a 60 percent chance of tropical development by early next week, and the Atlantic wave that rolled off the coast of Africa on Monday was upgraded to 40 percent over five days.
The next two names on the Atlantic list are Bret and Cindy. And although the Central Atlantic wave appears to be getting better organized, the NHC track suggests it might crash-land into South America before it has a chance to cause any mischief in the Caribbean.
It is slightly disturbing, for non-meterological reasons, that the names for the 2017 hurricane season are recycled from 2005, although there were a number of retired names that year so instead of Katrina, there’s Katia; and instead of Rita there’s Rina; and instead of Wilma there’s Whitney.
These names were used in 2011 as well, and that season was no slouch with 19 named storms, seven hurricanes and four majors.
July was quite active that year with three tropical storms, and then things got crazy in August with seven named storms forming in the Atlantic, including Category 3 Hurricane Irene.
Fortunately, names are just names and have nothing to do with environmental conditions over any given year.