The Tropical Weather Outlook map is unusually active for mid-June, with two areas in the Atlantic being monitored. (Credit: NHC)
A strong tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic — unusual for this time of the year — has grabbed the attention of the National Hurricane Center where forecasters were giving it a 20 percent chance of development by Monday.
NHC forecast maps suggest that this could be a long-tracking system more typical of the type seen in August and September, during the peak of the Cape Verde season (see historical note below).
An area of disturbed weather around the Yucatan Peninsula was also given a 20 percent chance of development over the next five days as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico.
While forecast models haven’t really grabbed on to the eastern Atlantic wave, they continue to predict something coming out of the Yucatan/ western Caribbean by late this weekend. Wednesday’s runs of GFS had a very weak low meandering in the Bay of Campeche, but the European (ECMWF) aimed it at South Texas.
The Canadian and Navy models suggest some development farther to the east, near the western tip of Cuba or off Florida’s West Coast.
National Weather Service forecasters in Miami said in their Wednesday analysis: “Looking into the beginning of next week, both the GFS and the ECMWF have a tropical low moving off the Yucatan, and progressing to the northwest. However, the models are indicating it could spread some additional tropical moisture across South Florida for Monday and Tuesday ….”
Whatever develops “will bear close watching over the next several days,” they said.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is forecasting the heaviest rainfall over the next seven days for the Florida peninsula, with more than 3 inches from Tampa to Key West.
In Texas, National Weather Service forecasters in Houston noted the ECMWF forecast for South Texas, predicting a land-falling tropical storm or depression for Matagorda Bay near Port O’Connor. Wednesday’s run of the European may be “more of a fluke,” they said, “but it does serve as a reminder to ensure that all our hurricane plans and
kits are refreshed and ready to go.”
RECORD WATCH: West Palm Beach and Melbourne each tied record warm lows on Monday — 81 in West Palm Beach and 78 in Melbourne.
The track of Tropical Storm Ana in 1979. It developed from a tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa on June 14 and was named a depression on June 19 . The system was upgraded to a tropical storm on June 22. (Credit: Wikimedia Commons)
HISTORICAL NOTE: Tropical development in the deep Atlantic is so rare in June that only two tropical storms have been recorded since 1851 prior to July 1, Weather Underground’s Bob Henson said in a blog post Wednesday afternoon. They are Tropical Storm Ana in 1979, and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane.