Hurricane Center watching Atlantic low for development

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An area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic has a 10 percent of development by Saturday and a 20 percent chance by Tuesday. (Credit: NHC)

With just 27 days left in the 2016 hurricane season, another potential Otto has popped up on the National Hurricane Center map. A non-tropical area of low pressure about 1,000 northeast of the Leeward Islands could become subtropical as it moves toward the northeast, NHC forecasters said.

They gave it a 20 percent chance of becoming a depression — or Subtropical Storm Otto — over the next five days as it moves toward the north-northeast.

The GFS and ECMWF both predict some development from the system, but nothing that should affect land.

Climatology does suggest that the Atlantic Basin could squeeze out one more named storm, and forecast models have been running hot and cold regarding possible development this month in the Caribbean.

But nothing has come together so far. With the exception of the area under scrutiny by the NHC, the ultra-long-range GFS looks fairly quiet through at least the middle of the month.

By the way: Whether the Atlantic season ends with another named storm or not, 2016 is going to be a year in which the long-range forecasting services ended up looking pretty good.

Current storm totals stand at 14 named systems, six hurricanes and three majors. Colorado State University’s June 1 forecast was for 14 named storms, six hurricanes and two majors. The United Kingdom’s Tropical Storm Risk was a little on the high side with its May 27 forecast for 17 storms, nine hurricanes and four majors.

NOAA fell within its own margin of error with its May 27 forecast for 10-16 named storms, four to eight hurricanes and one to four majors.

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weekend-forecast

Slightly cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the start of the weekend. (Credit: NWS-Miami)

OCTOBER IN REVIEW: Two major South Florida weather sites — Miami and Naples — had a top 10 warmest October, the National Weather Service reported Thursday. Miami’s overall average temperature was 80.7 degrees, making it the seventh-warmest October on record. Naples had its ninth-warmest October, with an average temperature of 79.3 degrees.

West Palm Beach had its 12th-warmest October with an average temperature of 80.1. Temperatures in Fort Lauderdale, though, were slightly below average.

Monthly precipitation in South Florida was slightly below average in many areas, but mostly above normal on Florida’s East-Central coast after its close encounter with Hurricane Matthew.

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Author: jnelander

Freelance writer and editor

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