Chamber of Commerce weather has followed Matthew in Florida, with cooler temperatures. But will the month go out wet and wild? (Credit: NOAA/ CPC)
Post-Matthew, Florida is enjoying the kind of weather that makes the front page of tourist brochures — balmy but refreshing breezes, lower humidity and comfortable temperatures.
The high in West Palm Beach on Monday was 82 — the coolest high temperature since May 8.
Open window weather has paid the state a visit with dew points as low as 59 degrees on gusty northeast winds. There were a few highs in the upper 70s in North Florida, including 77 in Jacksonville and 79 in Daytona Beach.
The low in Gainesville Monday was a brisk 57 degrees and there was even a reported low of 47 in Crestview in the western panhandle.
The forecast is for more coolish temperatures through the rest of the week, but rising toward the mid-80s in South Florida.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for a return to above normal temperatures, though, from Oct. 16-24, not only in Florida but across most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
Below normal precipitation is also in the forecast for Florida through Oct. 24, but then rainfall is expected to spike as the month draws to a close and November begins.
The Big Question for Florida is whether the hurricane season is winding down or if there are more threats on the horizon. The season technically runs until Nov. 30 but late-season storms often sprout up in the Central Atlantic without threatening land.
But powerful storms can brew up right through the end of October and into the first part of November.
And forecast models are suggesting that October may go out with more of a bang than a whimper, with the GFS cranking up another whopper of a system in the western Caribbean the week of Oct. 23. Tuesday’s run had the storm threading the needle between western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and then approaching Florida’s West Coast.
The European (ECMWF) has a system brewing in the Central Caribbean that same weekend, and the Canadian (CMC) shows a storm moving north over Central Cuba and into the Bahamas that weekend.
We’ll have to cross our fingers that these scenarios will eventually be dropped as we edge closer to the middle and end of the month.