The forecast for Tropical Depression 12 is for several days of waxing and waning as it approaches and moves through the Central Atlantic. (Credit: NHC)
Tropical Depression 12 has formed in the eastern Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said at 11 a.m. Forecasters predicted it would become Tropical Storm Karl as it moves toward the west-northwest, and then west, but they said wind shear in the Central Atlantic would likely cause it to return to tropical depression status by the weekend.
Some restrengthening was in the forecast beyond Sunday.
NOAA’s GFS shows TD 12 falling apart and becoming an open tropical wave as it nears the western Atlantic.
Although it’s possible that the storm could threaten the Lesser Antilles toward the middle of next week, early forecast models suggest that it could miss the islands to the northeast.
TROPICAL STORM RECORD: Julia, which formed on Tuesday west of St. Augustine, was the first tropical storm on record to form over land in Florida, according to Colorado State University’s Phil Klotzbach.
Julia was still interacting with land on Wednesday but was maintaining miminal tropical storm status with winds of 40 mph. It was forecast to become a remnant low if it continues to interact with land near the coast of Georgia.
“There is a possibility, however, that the system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water,” NHC forecaster Richard Pasch said today.
A move off-shore into the Atlantic is suggested by several forecast models. The Canadian Model (CMC) shows it moving off-shore of South Carolina on Thursday and strengthening significantly in the Atlantic.